Politicians are speculating about the possibility of a snap Holyrood election, with the Scottish government struggling to win support from opposition parties.
John Swinney and his senior ministers have hinted at the prospect when pressed by journalists about opposition anger over budget cuts.
And his administration has now lost two votes in parliament on the same day, underlining the lack of political capital the government has.
But for all the rhetoric, the process to end up at an extraordinary election would be highly complex – and any vote might need to be run on a short timetable due to deadlines around setting tax rates.
It also would not change the fact there is a Scottish Parliament poll fixed for 2026, which would go ahead regardless.
What is the narrow path to a snap election, and how likely is it to happen?
Getty Images a dog at a polling station in GlasgowGetty Images
The budget process is really already under way in the back offices of the Scottish government, but it will kick off in earnest when Shona Robison sets out her draft spending and tax plans at Holyrood on 4 December.
The finance secretary has already warned that she faces incredibly difficult choices, and opposition parties have been vocal in their criticism of the cuts she has felt compelled to make in-year.
The Greens – lately the first port of call for a deal – are smarting after being kicked out of government by Humza Yousaf, and have seen some of their favourite policies shredded by Robison.
Labour want to replace the SNP in government, and have little incentive to do them any favours.
The Conservatives will have a new leader by the time the budget rolls around, but with the party desperate to retain its position as the core opposition to the SNP, a deal similar to the kind Annabelle Goldie used to do with Alex Salmond feels distinctly unlikely.
The Lib Dems might be keen to look like dealmakers, and one or two of them have backed budgets in the past in return for specific spending pledges.
That is the kind of agreement Shona Robison will be furiously trying to work towards in the weeks after she sets out her plans, even as they are examined by Holyrood’s committees.